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WORLD GOLD COUNCIL Q2 2026: DEMAND TRENDS & H2 2026 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Global gold demand reached 1,268.9t in Q2 2026 with first-half value touching a record $380B as central bank purchases and OTC flows offset ETF headwinds.
World Gold Council Q2 2026: Demand Trends & H2 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook
Global gold demand in the second quarter of 2026 reached 1,268.9t, holding steady year-on-year (1,268.6t in Q2 2025), bringing total first-half demand to 2,522t (+2% y/y) with an all-time record value of US$380 billion.
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Gold Supply & Demand Balance (Q2 2026 WGC Data)
According to official World Gold Council data, the LBMA (PM) gold price averaged US$4,506.29/oz in Q2 2026 (-8% from Q1 record, but +37% higher than Q2 2025). Total supply held flat at 1,268.9t as modest mine production gains compensated for recycling contraction.
| Sector (in tonnes) | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | QoQ, % | YoY, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Supply | 1,268.6 | 1,370.6 | 1,332.2 | 1,253.1 | 1,268.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Mine Production | 947.7 | 1,028.1 | 986.6 | 901.3 | 965.6 | 7 | 2 |
| Recycled Gold | 346.7 | 342.7 | 365.8 | 373.8 | 326.1 | -13 | -6 |
| Net Producer Hedging | -25.8 | -0.2 | -20.2 | -22.1 | -22.8 | — | — |
| Total Demand (incl. OTC) | 1,268.6 | 1,370.6 | 1,332.2 | 1,253.1 | 1,268.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Jewellery Consumption | 335.3 | 375.6 | 434.8 | 294.2 | 278.2 | -5 | -17 |
| Technology & Electronics | 78.6 | 81.7 | 82.1 | 81.6 | 80.4 | -2 | 2 |
| Bar & Coin Investment | 315.6 | 328.4 | 428.1 | 476.8 | 307.1 | -36 | -3 |
| Gold ETFs & Similar | 171.1 | 225.7 | 175.7 | 62.4 | -44.8 | — | — |
| Central Banks & Official Sector | 177.9 | 226.3 | 208.2 | 56.5 | 288.9 | 411 | 62 |
| OTC & Other Flows | 171.1 | 88.5 | -0.9 | 243.7 | 327.1 | 34 | 91 |
Sector Analysis
Official Sector & Central Banks
Central bank net purchases rebounded sharply following Q1 downward revisions, reaching 288.9t in Q2 (+411% QoQ, +62% YoY). World Gold Council analysts Louise Street and Krishan Gopaul noted that sovereign reserve managers returned to the elevated buying pace typical of the past four years to hedge geopolitical risk.
Bar & Coin and OTC Demand
Retail bar and coin investment normalized to 307.1t (-3% YoY) following exceptional volumes in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Concurrently, OTC transactions surged to 327.1t (+91% YoY), driven by Asian institutional demand, low local real rates, and property sector caution in China.
ETF Outflows
Global gold ETFs registered net outflows of -44.8t, primarily concentrated in North American funds as 10-year US TIPS yields approached 2.5% and the US dollar remained robust.
Technology & Jewellery
Jewellery consumption fell to 278.2t (-17% YoY), the lowest quarterly volume since the pandemic. However, value spent rose +14% YoY to US$40bn. Technology demand reached 80.4t (+2% YoY), where AI semiconductor bond-wiring offset consumer device softness.
World Gold Council H2 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook
[!NOTE] 10-year US TIPS yields are hovering near 2.5%, with markets pricing rate paths closely. While elevated real yields create headwinds for non-yielding assets, institutional positioning is far less stretched than in early 2026.
[!IMPORTANT] Annual central bank net purchases in 2026 are expected to remain solid, though finishing slightly below the absolute record set in 2025 due to the softer Q1 baseline.
Key Risk Factors and Counter-Scenarios
- Real Interest Rates and US Dollar Strength: If TIPS yields push substantially above 2.5% alongside hawkish central bank policies, Western ETF outflows may accelerate.
- Indian Monsoon and Rural Liquidity: Any shortfall in the monsoon season poses downside risk to rural Indian bullion accumulation.
- AI Hardware Capex Cycles: Moderation in artificial intelligence data center expansion could slow growth in industrial gold usage.