As of 2 June 2026, the spot price of gold (XAU/USD) settled around $4,529.54 per troy ounce, holding within an intraday range of $4,458–$4,544. Having closed its third consecutive month of decline, the metal is showing signs of stabilisation. Fundamental long-term support from the official sector continues to counter the hawkish pressure of the US Federal Reserve.

1. The fundamental backdrop: a geopolitical shield and central-bank reserves

Despite the local price correction, the structural factors supporting the gold market remain intact:

• Unprecedented reserve accumulation: according to WGC data, over the whole of 2025 central banks acquired a colossal 863 tonnes of gold. This far exceeds the 2010–2021 annual average (473 tonnes) and confirms a sustained de-dollarisation trend.
• The Middle East crisis: geopolitical tension flared up anew following joint US-Israeli strikes on targets in Iran. The smouldering conflict keeps a risk premium baked into precious-metals quotes.
• The diplomatic factor: the main short-term market driver remains the sluggish negotiations between the US and Iran — any progress or breakdown will instantly amplify macro signals on the gold chart.

2. Revised bank forecasts: a temporary lull before the surge

Against a backdrop of temporarily reduced retail-buyer activity, leading investment houses have updated their year-end expectations.

J.P. Morgan's adjustment: because current client demand has "fallen to a minimum" in the short term, the bank's analysts cut their 2026 average annual gold-price forecast from $5,708 to $5,243 per ounce. Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan maintains a base year-end target of around $6,000 per ounce, anticipating a powerful capital inflow into ETFs in the second half of the year.

Indicator	Range of expectations	Key factors
Average annual price for 2026	$4,900 – $5,243 / oz	Short-term downgrades due to rising real yields in the US
Year-end 2026 targets	$5,400 – $6,300 / oz	Anticipated resumption of institutional buying and a long-term deficit

3. The nearest macroeconomic triggers

In early June, traders' attention is fixed on key US data capable of recalibrating expectations for Fed interest rates:

• Non-Farm Payrolls report (6 June 2026): US labour-market data will be the defining vector. A strong release would fully free the Fed's hand to maintain tight monetary policy, putting pressure on gold.
• Bond yields and the dollar: persistent inflationary pressure narrows the scope for rapid rate cuts, keeping US government-bond yields at high levels.

4. Technical analysis: searching for a bottom and consolidation

Technically, the spot gold price ($4,529.54) is trading just below a dense cluster of short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating a local predominance of sellers.

• Moving averages: key long-term support is formed by the 200-day SMA at $4,412 and the 200-day EMA around $4,380.
• ADX index: sits at 24.80, approaching the threshold of a confident trend.
• Pivot-point levels: resistance R1 — $4,754, support S1 — $4,347.

5. Gold in historical context (2024–2026)

The current levels around $4,530 may seem weak compared with banks' strategic targets, but they underscore the asset's outstanding long-term resilience:

• Year-on-year: gold is trading roughly 35% higher than in the same period last year.
• Two-year view: the current price exceeds quotes from two years ago by 72.5%.
• Discount from the peak: the metal has corrected down by about 16.6% from the absolute all-time high set in late January 2026.

Summary

Gold's current correction is a classic rebalancing of forces. And while the Fed's hawkish stance and a strong dollar act as a tough restraining factor for speculators, beneath the quotes lies a solid foundation of strategic purchases by the world's central banks and perpetual geopolitical threats. For long-term investors, the current consolidation levels look like a natural pause before the market transitions into an autumn deficit phase.