Platinum is a rare case where world supply depends less on a country than on a single geological body — and that body sits on one electricity grid.

One country, one complex

USGS data puts South Africa's platinum-group-metal reserves at roughly 63 million kg out of a global total above 76 million kg, close to 90% of the world's identified reserves. In 2025 the country produced 120,000 kg of the 170,000 kg mined worldwide. Johnson Matthey puts South Africa's contribution to 2026 primary platinum supply at 3,873 thousand ounces, about 71%.

Inside South Africa the concentration is tighter still: essentially all of it sits in the Bushveld Igneous Complex, whose Merensky Reef and UG2 horizons are estimated to produce around 80% of mined platinum globally.

Why electricity carries more weight here

South Africa's major producers — Valterra Platinum, Impala, Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam — are vertically integrated, each running its own smelters and refineries. Ore travels the full route to London-standard bar inside the country. Smelting and refining are continuous, temperature-sensitive processes that cannot be switched off and on to fit a load-shedding schedule.

Industry analysis links every 1,000 GWh of shed load to roughly 2% of lost PGM output.

Grid health is tracked through the Energy Availability Factor. Across Eskom's FY2025 the EAF averaged 61.2%, against the utility's own 70% target.

There has been relief: the country went 161 consecutive days without formal load-shedding between April and October 2025. Then, on 22 February 2025, simultaneous unit failures at the Majuba and Camden stations returned outages without warning at Stage 6. By mid-2026 industry trackers recorded controlled outages on 63 of 90 days in the second quarter, alongside a 15.6% Eskom tariff increase effective April 2026.

Costs against prices

South African platinum all-in-sustaining costs averaged roughly $1,250 per ounce by mid-2026. That sits well below the market: the 2025 annual average was about $1,200, and by mid-2026 spot and near-dated futures held a $1,650–$1,690 range.

The industry as a whole therefore works with headroom; the exposure is at the margin. The same assessment places 5–7% of South African PGM capacity in a cost-risk zone below sustainable margins — the pressure falls on the oldest and deepest shafts, not on the average one.

Deficits and stocks

Platinum has run an annual supply deficit every year since 2023. The 2025 shortfall of 1,082 thousand ounces was the largest in the World Platinum Investment Council's series going back to 2013. Above-ground stocks stood at 2,044 thousand ounces in 2025 and are forecast at 1,747 thousand ounces for 2026.

This is where the widely repeated "less than 90 days of supply left" comes from. WPIC's own wording is narrower: above-ground stocks are expected to fall to just under three months of demand cover by the end of 2026. That is a year-end forecast, not a description of today's warehouse.

The picture has a counterweight as well. The first quarter of 2026 closed in surplus by 268 thousand ounces as South African output recovered faster than expected, though the full-year forecast remains a deficit of roughly 297 thousand ounces.

How to read it

Platinum's energy constraint is not a story of the past few weeks. Power shortages first cut PGM output in 2008, when platinum and palladium set record highs on mine shutdowns, and the problem has varied in intensity since without going away.

For a buyer of physical metal, what matters is the durability of the structure rather than the drama of the headline: mine supply is essentially flat, with WPIC attributing all forecast supply growth to recycling; stocks are drawing down for a fourth year; and grid reliability sits outside the industry's control. That describes a mechanism, not a price forecast. The deficit is already in the quote, and its continuation does not by itself imply further gains.

This material is informational and is not individual investment advice.

Source: TrueSource Metals Hub, "Platinum" section — https://hub.truesourcemetals.com/metals/platinum